Tropical Storms Jerry Karen Poorly Organized New Storm Soon Eastern Atlantic
The two named storms in the Atlantic right now are both poorly organized. Tropical Storm Karen is in the Eastern Caribbean Sea and is fighting off strong northeasterly shear coming down the front side of Tropical Storm Jerry which is located about 400 miles southwest of Bermuda.
The satellite above shows Karen as a ball of convection in the Southeast Caribbean while the center is located somewhere on the northeas side of that convection. Except for a few bursts of wind around 40 knots well to the northeast of the center most of the winds in Karen are 30 knots or less so this is barely a tropical storm at this point.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Grenada and its dependencies, St. Vincent and the Grenadines while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra as well as the British Virgin Islands. The National Hurricane Center forecast track is for Karen to move northwest or north northwest reaching Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. What exactly will we have when it gets there remains to be seen given the hostile conditions that exist at the moment. Conditions may become more conducive for development once Karen emerges into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico. The long range for Karen is highly uncertain. First off we don’t know how much of it will survive. Once on the Atlantic side a large ridge will be building to the north of Karen and that could turn it toward the west in the long term.
JERRY SATELLITE WITH KAREN
Tropical Storm Jerry meanwhile is a little better defined than Karen with top winds of 65 mph moving north northwest at 9 mph. At the moment we have no watches or warnings up for Bermuda. That could change in the next advisory or Monday morning. The center of Jerry is on the northwestern edge of the convection and the clouds to the northwest are from a lingering trough off the East Coast of the US that is creating strong westerly winds aloft impacting Jerry’s overall structure.
Jerry is forecast to maintain tropical storm strength as it turns northwaard and than northeastward making a very close pass to Bermuda. Given that most of the rain and wind with Jerry are to the east of the center this would put Bermuda in rain and wind Tuesday into Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.
The map above shows the flow well up into the atmosphere reaching 30,000 feet and the strong wind shear that is impacting both systems. Meanwhile out in the far Eastern Atlantic is a low that has developed south of the Cabo Verde Islands and this system is very close to being a tropical depression or a tropical storm.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE
This low will likely become a tropical storm on Monday. The track will be to the west for awhile however A trough is forecast to be in the Central Atlantic in a few days that will extend all the way south to 20 degrees north. This likely means that this tropical system will recurve in the Central Atlantic and never come close to any land areas.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.