Tropical Storm Warnings Flash Flood Watch Fay Stronger Moving Northward
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
Tropical Storm Warnings continue this morning for New Jersey to NYC to Southern Connecticut and Long Island. Tropical Storm Fay is moving northward and has actually strengthened a bit overnight. The satellite picture below shows a well defined satellite signature. It isn’t the most tropical of tropical storms but we do continue to see a center that is somewhat well defined. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect from the Delmarva Peninsula northward through all of New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania eastward to the Hudson Valley, NYC, Long Island and Southern New England.
Winds of tropical storm force will likely impact the immediate shore but I’m not really too concerned about winds just inland. There might be some gusts to gale force here and there. The bigger story today is going to be the rain. This is a 6 to 8 hour round of heavy rains that will amount to 2 to 3 inches in most places. There could be some locally higher amounts.
Fay is now in range of the regional radar and as well as the local radars. Weather conditions will deteriorate from south to north into this afternoon as the heavy rain to the south moves northward.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The track of Tropical Storm Fay looks to be northward straddling the coastline and pass close to or just west of NYC and then northward up the Hudson Valley. There will be some severe weather risk today east of the track of the center of Fay.
This is a set up where there is a chance for tornadoes in the severe weather risk zone given the strong southeast tropical flow. Fay should start moving a little faster to the north as the day wears on. This should mean weather conditions will start to improve beginning later this afternoon in Southern New Jersey and let this evening from NYC and Long Island northward. The HRRR model this morning seems to be on course with Fay.
Fay shouldn’t strengthen much more as it is now moving over progressively colder water and the center of Fay will also soon be straddling the coastline or even slide inland along the New Jersey shore. Again rain is the bigger deal here rather than wind. Higher tides should not be a big issue today given the short duration of the tropical storm and the minimal amount of time the storm spends over the coastal waters.
Regarding the weekend we have a risk for severe weather Saturday as an upper trough moves eastward. It will be a warm and humid day with showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Highs will be in the 80s. Sunday looks like the better weekend day with sunshine and an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs will again be in the 80s. A stronger upper trough will swing into the Eastern US with a cold front and this opens the possibility of showers and thunderstorms and severe weather on Monday.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.