tropical storm

Tropical Storm Possibilities Next Weekend In NW Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico?

Tropical Storm Possibilities Next Weekend In NW Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Possibilities Next Weekend In

NW Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico

Over the last seven days weather models have been consistently showing some sort of tropical system developing in the Northwest Caribbean and making its way into the Gulf of Mexico. They have been doing this with remarkable consistency and now that we are inside a week I thought it might be a good idea to see what exactly is going on. First off as far as the Gulf of Mexico is concerned today we see disturbed weather in the Eastern Gulf extending westward from Florida to the Central Gulf of Mexico. THIS IS NOT ANY KIND OF TROPICAL SYSTEM nor is it forecast to become one.

storm free

On the water vapor loop below there is disturbed weather in the southwest corner of the loop south of the coast of Mexico on the Pacific side. This is showing some signs of organization and that could become a tropical depression over the next day or so per the National Hurricane Center. However more importantly is that the region from there westward to Central America is forecast to become very active with increasing convection and thunderstorms over the coming week. Add to that the fact that we will have pressures that will be running low across the region and a somewhat favorable upper air pattern developing later this week, that something could develop there next weekend.

Weather models still are going in this direction today and when we look at the higher levels of the atmosphere there will be an area of light wind shear developing in the Northwest Caribbean. Tropical systems drive in areas where winds are light as you rise in height. Light winds aloft allow for stronger thunderstorm development reaching higher levels of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear rips the cloud tops from those thunderstorms and restricts development.

Tropical Storm Possibilties GFS Upper Air Wind Shear Profile Next Weekend


tropical storm

Now you might have a favorable upper air environment for development but there are other factors as well including proximity to land among other things. Right now it is a wait and see approach with this and I would emphasize that since models are doing this and have been for days, this is not the time to take things seriously from a development standpoint. Weather models like to spin up systems at will and we will likely see that happen many times over the next several months. If we are still seeing models doing this later this week, then we will probably grow more bullish on the possibilities.

 

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