Tropical Storm Outlook Week Ahead

Tropical Storm Outlook Week Ahead

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Tropical Storm Outlook Week Ahead

No Development Forecast

Models Show Area of Interest Next Weekend

Gulf Of Mexico Satellite View

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Western Atlantic Satellite View

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Tropical Atlantic Satellite View

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Looking across the tropics at the moment the satellite loops of all regions pretty much tell the same story. June is usually a month where developing is infrequent but not impossible. Of course we are already through the “C” storm as we saw Colin last week and Bonnie in Late May. It would seem that since we have seen early activity the odds of another tropical storm would be higher than in most years. For now however the tropics remain quiet.

Tropical Storm Outlook Week Ahead

GFS Next Monday 

gfs186 Tropical Storm Outlook Week Ahead

Two areas of interest appear on weather models next weekend. One is along and off the Carolinas and the other is in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. With regards to the low off the Carolinas it begins as a non tropical low that moves off the southeast coast and sits offshore for a few days. The issue here is time. When non tropical lows move offshore they need to sit off the east coast for at least several days to transition to a tropical system. This even assumes that conditions would be favorable for development aloft. In the Southwest Gulf we have a system that probably has a better chance of development again depending on the upper winds.

Tropical Storm Outlook Week Ahead

Upper Air Shearing Profile Next Monday

gfs_shear_watl_32 Tropical Storm Outlook Week Ahead

The gulf low (assuming the models are correct on this) sits in a low shear environment though the outflow here is far from ideal. The Carolina low seems to be in a low shear in environment to the east but higher shear to the west which creates issues as does proximity to land and time over the warm water. These are two systems to watch though for now we are purely in speculative range. Of the two I think the low in the Southwest Gulf probably has the better shot and the Carolina low would likely remain non tropical in nature. At least that is the picture at the moment.

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