Tropical Storm Matthew Nears Hurricane Strength
Tropical Storm Matthew Nears Hurricane Strength
In spite of the fact that there are some issues with regards to strengthening in the Eastern Caribbean, Tropical Storm Matthew continues to organize and strengthen. Most times when the Air Force plane finds winds at flight level level that are much higher than you might otherwise expect, it is usually a sign that something is going on. Pressures have dropped another 6 mb since the last reconnaissance report a few hours ago to 996 mb. Flight level winds of 80 knots and a sustained wind of 64 knots suggest that Matthew is close to hurricane strength at the moment. Sometimes you see the winds increase and then the pressure has a subsequent drop.
000 URNT12 KNHC 291153 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016 A. 29/11:32:10Z B. 14 deg 07 min N 065 deg 27 min W C. 850 mb 1390 m D. 64 kt E. 306 deg 18 nm F. 059 deg 80 kt G. 311 deg 42 nm H. 996 mb I. 16 C / 1526 m J. 22 C / 1524 m K. 15 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF303 0414A MATTHEW OB 05 MAX FL WIND 80 KT 311 / 42 NM 11:18:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 095 / 11 KT ;
Tropical Storm Matthew is already more intense that what some models suggested it to be at this point so I guess we just go with it from this point. Conditions seem favorable for further strengthening especially in the next few days as wind shear across the Caribbean continues to lessen.
..HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 65.5W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew is forecast to pass to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) primarily to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late today. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.
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