Tropical Storm Likely To Form In Caribbean
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Tropical Storm Likely To Form In Caribbean
Judging from the latest satellite loop the tropical wave in the Caribbean remains well organized and it appears that a low level circulation is trying to close off. The system is already producing gale force winds and the National Hurricane Center in their latest update indicates a 90% chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone.
1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, centered about 275 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Thunderstorm activity associated with the wave remains organized, but the system still appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate this system late this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Overnight hurricane models vary in what they do with this. The most aggressive is the HWRF which develops this into a major hurricane as it heads toward the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL model has a much weaker system and barely a tropical storm or even a depression as it heads to the same spot.
Global models are also weaker though the European does develop this into a tropical storm and tracks it further south into Belize. Since the wave itself has outperformed the global models we will wait to see where we are at this time tomorrow. An early look at the afternoon European model seems to have a similar idea as last night’s though the model is only out through 48 hours.
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