tropical storm

Tropical Storm Likely To Form In Caribbean

Tropical Storm Likely To Form In Caribbean

[brid video=”56885″ player=”6390″ title=”FLASH FLOOD WATCH & TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT”]

Tropical Storm Likely To Form In Caribbean

Judging from the latest satellite loop the tropical wave in the Caribbean remains well organized and it appears that a low level circulation is trying to close off. The system is already producing gale force winds and the National Hurricane Center in their latest update indicates a 90% chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone.

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1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, centered
about 275 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
move quickly westward at about 20 mph.  Thunderstorm activity
associated with the wave remains organized, but the system still
appears to lack a closed surface circulation.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight.  An
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
investigate this system late this afternoon.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to
tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti through this evening.  Tropical storm conditions
are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach
the Cayman Islands overnight.  Interests in these areas and
elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

hrwf tropical storm

Overnight hurricane models vary in what they do with this. The most aggressive is the HWRF which develops this into a major hurricane as it heads toward the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL model has a much weaker system and barely a tropical storm or even a depression as it heads to the same spot.

tropical storm

Global models are also weaker though the European does develop this into a tropical storm and tracks it further south into Belize. Since the wave itself has outperformed the global models we will wait to see where we are at this time tomorrow. An early look at the afternoon European model seems to have a similar idea as last night’s though the model is only out through 48 hours.

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