Tropical Storm Karl Remains Sheared
Tropical Storm Karl Remains Sheared
Hostile Environment Until Sunday
Shear is the name of the game for Tropical Storm Karl. The satellite loop shows the low level center of the tropical storm on the western side of te deep convection which seems to be flaring up tonight. However the strong winds aloft shearing the storm will continue for another 36 hours before conditions begin to become more favorable. Karl is moving westward and will gradually move out of the strong shear environment. However what happens to Karl strength wise down the road remains to be seen. The European model which had a major hurricane going north of the Leeward Islands now has a much weaker system. This is the reason why it is not wise to rely on one dynamic model run for anything tropical or non tropical in the long range as there is just too much atmospheric variability.
..KARL FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 35.6W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Karl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Meanwhile Tropical Storm Julia has seen all its thunderstorms sheared away to the east and all that seems left now is the low level circulation swirl that is moving southward based on the satellite loop. It appears Tropical Storm Julia is in the winding down process and may not be around much longer. Strong westerly shear continues over the ocean off the Southeast coast and that should put the final nail in the coffin on this tropical storm.
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