Tropical Storm Karen Forms Watches Likely Later Today Puerto Rico Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect fo Trinidad and Tobago
Grenada and its dependencies St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Disturbed weather with a tropical wave east of the Windward Islands organized overnight with a closed circulation and winds of gale force being reported in Barbados so we now we have Tropical Storm Karen with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Karen is moving west northwestward into the Southeast Caribbean and is going to turn northward later today or tonight Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Karen.
On the wide satellite picture below Karen is south of Tropical Storm Jerry which is north of Puerto Rick and moving north northwestward. Jerry leaves a large weakness in the upper atmosphere to the south that Karen is going to respond to by turning northward which means Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and possibly some of the Northern Leeward Islands will be dealing with tropical storm conditions developing sometime on Tuesday.
As far as strengthening goes, Karen may be somewhat limited if any strengthening at all for the time being thanks to strong northeast winds in the upper atmosphere which is partly due to Tropical Storm Jerry to the north. As Karen approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday conditions could become more favorable as the wind shear field relaxes and by this point Tropical Storm Jerry is moving toward Bermuda which would be far enough away for Karen to thrive in a more favorable environment.
The long range outlook for Karen is an rather interesting one. With Tropical Storm Jerry moving norrtheast and away from Bermuda midweek an upper high is forecast to build off the Southeast coast of the US. If Jerry remains less developed and moves away fast enough, Karen would move northward over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday into Wednesday and then find itself turning westward in response to the upper high. There is a wide spread in model tracks longer range but enough of them suggest that this is possible. This may be something to keep an eye on in the coming days.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.