Tropical Storm Karen Disorganized
Hurricane Lorenzo Will Become a Major Hurricane Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Karen remains a rather disorganized mess now that the center has moved into the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. Convection is blotchy and scattered around a broad elongated center. It is moving to the north away from Puerto Rico & the Virgin Islands where heavy rains are continuing in some areas. The future track and intensity for Karen are highly uncertain going forward given the rather complex features that dominate the Southwest Atlantic at this point.
Look for Karen to move northward for the next day or so before slowing down or even stalling before turning to the west or west southwest. A building ridge to the north of Karen that will extend westward into the Gulf States will be the driving mechanism going forward. Initially Karen is being pulled northward by weakening post tropical storm Jerry which is over Bermuda today. Jerry will eventually dissipate and then Karen will start responding to the build high to the north and west of the storm.
While conditions seem favorable for strengthening there are issue of dry air and an upper low to the west producing some shear across the Southwest Atlantic. Global models basically wipe Karen out completely before ever reaching the Bahamas or Florida. The global models have been advertising this for days and we tend to lean to the idea that Karen may eventually become a remnant low as it moves westward. This is no guarantee so we will just keep watching this.
Hurricane Lorenzo meanwhile dominates the Southeast Tropical Atlantic as a large hurricane with a wide circulation. Conditions are favorable for Lorenzo to continue strengthening to a major hurricane in the next day or so. However Lorenzo wiil never get anywhere close to land at this point with a trough in the Central Atlantic. Lorenzo will turn northward before ever reaching 50 degrees west.
For now it seems that while we have to named systems out there, there really isn’t much to concern ourselves with. Upper air conditions along the Middle Atlantic and Northeast are not favorable for any move up the East Coast for Karen. The disorganized look of the storm suggests that Karen will never get its act together. Perhaps Karen should consider calling the manager!
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.