Tropical Storm Joaquin Strengthens As It Continues Moving Westward.

Air Force Recon found 991 mb pressure and flight level winds of 61 kts. That and the satellite loop this afternoon showing that the center seems to be getting tucked under the main area of convection. The western side is still somewhat exposed but it is getting better organized. This could be an indicator that the shearing environment is relaxing a bit though it may not be completely gone.

 

...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.0W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

The upper low to the northeast of Tropical Storm Joaquin continues to pull away to the northeast. It will be interesting now to see how strong Joaquin can get while conditions appear to be favorable.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

The new National Hurricane Center forecast adjusts the track to the east but there is so much uncertainty that varies from one model run to the other. This is likely to change again later tonight and on Wednesday.nhcprog

 

 

 

The National Hurricane Center forecast is forecasting Tropical Storm Joaquin to strengthen to a minimal hurricane in the next 24 hours. After that it is forecast to maintain strength but remember the track is highly uncertain given the conditions aloft along the east coast.

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