Tropical Storm Henri Risks to Southern New England Long Island Rising
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Tropical Storm Henri Risks to Southern New England Long Island Rising
Tropical Storm Henri is holding its own in spite of strong northeasterly shear over the storm. That shear however is forecast to relax Friday and this should allow the storm to strengthen Friday into Saturday. Latest models indicated that a strong ridge building over New England will close off an exit to the east and force Henri on a more westward course and that now puts areas in Southern New England and Eastern Long Island at risk for a landfalling tropical system Sunday.
SATELLITE
Thursday evening model outputs all went to the left of previous runs and tonight’s Nam model shows the center coming into Montauk late Sunday and then heading into Northwest Connecticut. There are still many details to work out here but we can say that there will be no tropical storm related issues Friday or Saturday. If other models follow the course of the NAM it is likely that watches of some sort will go up Friday for impacts from Henri on Sunday.
We mentioned earlier how the strong upper ridge in the Northwest Atlantic builds and cuts of an exit to the east. To the west of Henri is an upper low that drops into West Virginia and Virginia. The resulting south southeast steering flow turns Henri northwestward into Eastern Long Island and Southern New England.
There are many details to work out here in terms of what exactly we will be dealing with here regarding this storm. Conditions will become favorable for strengthening and Henri will reach at least category 1 status and might even reach category 2 as it moves up the coast. On the other hand, as it approaches Southern New England the cooler ocean water and the relatively slow movement could cause some weakening before landfall. Bear in mind that as the storm reaches northern latitudes the wind field does tend to spread out some with strongest winds diminishing off the highs. Heavier rain will fall west of the track and the western edge will probably cut off around or just west of NYC while wind will be the bigger issue along and east of the low track. This would create tidal flooding issues for Southeastern Connecticut and Rhode Island East including Long Island sound. For the South Shore of Long Island and New Jersey winds will be north or northwest diminishing tidal concerns in those areas. We will work out more specific details on what to expect Friday once we become more certain of the forecast track. In the meantime Friday and Saturday will be typical August days in a tropical warm and humid air masses and nothing happens until Sunday morning when weather conditions in the above areas mentioned begin to deteriorate.
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