Wide view of the satellite loop and you can still see the circulation of Tropical Storm Fred as it meanders in the eastern Atlantic.

Shearing will continue to increase and Fred is forecast to weaken overnight. There is a chance it could regenerate in a few days when it moves into more favorable conditions but in the end it is one for the stats and nothing more.


Meanwhile we see convection off the southeast coast and this is associate with the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika. None of the models really do very much with this. There is an upper low to the east that models were earlier trying to develop this into something important but they have backed off from that as well.

Elsewhere there isn’t much happening. The tropical Atlantic has a couple of disturbances but shear is everywhere it seems with clouds blowing away to the northeast.

Further east there is a strong circulation moving off the African coast and conditions are favorable for this system to develop over the next few days at it moves west. This could wind up being another system that develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm however it would still have to overcome a very hostile environment across the Atlantic which shows no signs of changing anytime soon.

Normally the Labor Day Weekend has one hurricane running around somewhere but it appears that this season might be one of those exceptions unless the system off the African coast really gets going. It is so far to the east however to be be relevant to us in any way. Looking ahead to the month of September which is usually the most active month, the trend is your friend so unless we see some wholesale changes in the pattern, for now I would simply guess that it will be more of the same until further notice. This el nino in the Pacific is just way too dominating a force. Anything that is going to happen is likely to be homegrown and nearby and not from the deep tropics.