Tropical Storm Formation Possibilities Next 5 Days
Tropical Storm Formation Possibilites Next 5 Days
We have been discussing the possibility of some sort of tropical system developing later this weekend and early next week in the Northwest Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and we continue to move forward on that idea. The National Hurricane Center is indicating now a 50 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days but nothing for the the next 48 hours. If this happens it will occur probably early next week. Right now at least from the standpoint of the Gulf of Mexico view there is nothing there on the satellite loop this morning.
One the wider satellite view you can see there are actually 2 systems being monitored. The second one is out in the Eastern Atlantic where you see a cluster of clouds moving westward. The National Hurricane Center rates that a 20 percent chance of development over the next 5 days. This is an area that is not favorable for development based on weather history. Storms forming in this region this time of year are extremely rare.
On to the system in the Caribbean where you can begin to see disturbed weather developing. This is part of a large area of disturbed weather that extends from there westward into the Pacific. Notice that the clouds are turning “anticyclonic” or clockwise. This is a sign of an upper level high pressure area that makes conditions favorable for developement. This is a low wind shear environment which tropical systems thrive on.
Here is a view of the GFS forecast for wind shear Sunday morning in the area of potential development. This is also an area of warm water temperatures which are in the middle 80s.
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBILITIES EARLY NEXT WEEK
With respect to what weather models do with this right now they are all over the place with this so we will wait until later today to see what the hurricane specific models do with it. In the meantime we continue to monitor.