tropical storm fiona

Tropical Storm Fiona Appears Better Organized

Tropical Storm Fiona Better Organized

Tropical Storm Fiona Appears Better Organized

Judging from the satellite loop this afternoon it appears Fiona is undergoing some more organization. This morning the storm looked a bit ragged but the core of convection has been increasing and there appears to be no signs of shear at the moment. Fiona remains in a good environment for strengthening and it could become a strong tropical storm before encountering strong wind shear in the Central Atlantic.

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You can see on the satellite loop below a cluster of thunderstorms south of Bermuda. There is a strong upper low there that shows no signs of getting out of the way Fiona will have to survive that as it gets closer to it on Sunday. Also behind Fiona is disturbed weather that has just moved off the African Coast. This system will be moving west and has a shot of developing over the next several days. 

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This is the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Fiona.

...FIONA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 40.5W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 40.5 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Now with regards to what this is going to do and where this is going, the upper air pattern is complicated by that upper low mentioned earlier off the east. It is also complicated by the overall upper air pattern that is taking shape over the United States.

euro240 Tropical Storm Fiona gem240 Tropical Storm Fiona gfs240 Tropical Storm Fiona

All three major models show some troughing in the Great Lakes southward with the European the most amplified. The reason i mention this is that this could be a bullish set up for a tropical system to come up the east coast. However the extent of the strength of that trough is important, as is the fact that there has to be a tropical storm in position somewhere for something to happen. It would mean that a number of factors would have to come together and frankly, that models show their usual flare for long range silliness is not something that necessarily inspires confidence in their forecasts.

euro240 Tropical Storm Fiona

Of course this winds up inspiring comparisons to other storms and frankly i have an intense dislike for such comparisons. They offer no meteorological value at all. Also I know there are stories running around by various news networks that this season is going to be the worst in years. They are click bait and offer no forecasting value at all.

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