Tropical Storm Fay Forms Tropical Storm Warnings New Jersey Long Island Coastal Connecticut
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey northward to
Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound.
Satellite loops, radar, and the latest recon flight all confirm that low pressure has reformed east of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and close to the convection that has developed offshore. Tropical Storm Fay has been designated as of 5pm by the National Hurricane Center. On the latest satellite picture we can see clouds wrapping around the west side of the low center and with Fay sitting over the Gulf Stream tonight, we could see it strengthen a bit before it moves northward up the coast.
The western edge of the convection is showing up on the regional radar this evening and backing westward though there isn’t much going on yet on land. That will change later tonight as Fay moves northward and begins to straddle the coast east of the Delmarva Peninsula. Strongest winds are all east of the center with not much going on to the west. That is why warnings have not been posted for Delaware and points southward.
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
There are no weather issues this evening after a hot and steamy day. Temperatures reached the upper 80s and lower 90s today. There are some widely scattered pop up showers and thunderstorms on the local radar well inland west and north and they should die off after sunset with little to any impact at all on our area.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FROM DELMARVA NORTH TO SOUTHEASTERN PA, ALL OF NEW JERSEY, HUDSON VALLEY CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING NYC & PHILADELPHIA
Rain will be the biggest issue from Fay with an area of 2 to 4 inch rains along and just to the west of the forecast track. We laid the forecast track from NHC on the NAM rainfall forecast map which matches well with the hurricane center’s forecast. Wind I do not believe is going to be a huge issue with gales along the immediate coast during Friday as the low moves northward but nothing much inland.
While ocean water temperatures are above normal offshore they aren’t warm enough to sustain Fay much beyond tropical storm strength and if Fay does indeed move inland over New Jersey it will weaken some. Rain is defintely the bigger issue here. Rain arrives in South Jersey Friday morning reaching NYC around mid morning. This is about an 8 hour event so the rain will be ending south to north from Southern New Jersey later Friday afternoon and north of NYC sometime late Friday evening.
East of Fay’s center severe weather is a risk and the Storm Prediction Center has Southern New England and Long Island at a marginal risk for severe weather and a 2% chance of a tornado in that marginal risk zone. Weather conditions will improve later Friday night into Saturday morning before we see some scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening as an upper trough swings through. Sunday will be very warm and humid but also quiet from the standpoint of thunderstorms. Monday brings a stronger trough and a cold front with a higher chance for thunderstorms and a risk for severe weather.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.