tropical storm earl

Tropical Storm Earl Strengthens

Tropical Storm Earl Strengthens This Evening With Winds 60 mph No Threat To The U.S Mainland

Tropical Storm Earl Strengthens

Likely Hurricane Before Landfall

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Air Force recon and satellite pictures all indicate that Tropical Storm Earl continues to gain strength. Maximum winds are now 60 mph and the air force plane actually observed winds higher than this on their latest pass through. With Earl moving over 86 degree water temperatures and higher, plus a low wind shear environment, it is likely to reach hurricane strength before landfall over Belize or the Southern Yucatan sometime Wednesday night.  

TROPICAL STORM EARL LATEST ADVISORY

...EARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning from Belize City southward
to the Belize/Guatemala border.  The government of Mexico has
changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning north of Belize City to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
*Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48
hours.  On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass
just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then
be very near the Belize coast early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane
before it makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

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What happens to Earl afterwards will depend on where it comes out on the other side in the Bay of Campeche. That depends on how far north it gets (if at all) as it moves across. Behind Earl there are two tropical waves evident. The lead one approaching the Windward Islands is getting sheared apart by a strong upper low to the northwest of the wave. The one behind it is coming into view on the edge of the loop and is better defined but it may run into the same shearing issues in a few days unless that upper low weakens or retreats westward.

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