Tropical Storm Development Possible Next 5 Days
Tropical Storm Development Possible Next 5 Days
Among many factors that makes tropical storm development possible is a light wind shear environment in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Up until about a week ago this was not possible in the tropical Atlantic thanks to a very strong upper air storm that was creating strong upper air winds throughout the entire Atlantic basin. That upper low is long gone and on the water vapor loop this morning we see a much more conducive environment for tropical storm development. Upper level winds have relaxed. This is going to have an impact on a strong tropical wave moving westward from the African coast. The western edge of that tropical wave is now coming into view in the southeast corner of the satellite loop
The other factor inhibiting development has been the large expansive area of dry air across the Tropical Atlantic. That has also lessened considerably. Below is a tight view of this strong wave as it begins its long trip across the Atlantic.
Now it is one thing to have a tropical wave. It is quite another to see if it will organize. Weather models seem to be growing bullish on the idea but as always with these things it needs to develop a closed circulation first. The National Hurricane Center has raised the probability of development to 50 percent.
Upper air winds and climatology would suggest a westward component of motion for the next several days or more. Unreliable global models are likely to spin up all sorts of solutions in the long range. We would simply suggest to ignore these possibilities at this stage.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS
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