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Tropical Storm Development Likely Later This Week

Tropical Storm Development Likely Later This Week

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Tropical Storm Development Likely Later This Week

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There are hurricane seasons that produce no tropical storms in the Tropical Atlantic east of 60 degrees west and south of 20 degrees north. However here we are in early July and we may very well see the second tropical storm to come out of that region. Weather models have been showing this idea for days. The National Hurricane Center has raised the probability of tropical storm development to 70 percent over the next 5 days though the risk is low in the next 48 hours. It appears that conditions are favorable for development as a low wind shear upper air environment will be in place. The satellite loop close up shot above and the wide shot below show the system disorganized at the moment. On the wide loop the system is just now appearing on the southeast corner of the loop and it is located south of 10 degrees north latitude.

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There is a strong ridge in the Azores and stretches across to the Southwest Atlantic and this should be in place for much of this week. This would favor a west to west northwest motion over the next 5 to 7 days, eventually bringing this system north of the Leeward Islands. Most of the hurricane model guidance shows this.

tropical storm

As far as any threat to the United States is concerned the usual suspects out there will be putting up maps and posts regarding this. A week to 10 days away is just too long a time frame to speculate. Based on what I am seeing in the upper air, it would seem to me that a threat to the US from this is probably a long shot.

tropical storm

The upper air of the long term models would suggest this will be an ocean system. A weakness in the ridge in the Atlantic will exist in the east. This would force a turn offshore of any well developed system. Obviously a lot can change here in terms of timing and depth of the troughs and the strength of ridges. For now however I would not consider this to be something to worry about. We will watch to see if the system develops first.

 

 

 

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