tropical storm

Tropical Storm Develoment Likely Next 2 Days

Tropical Storm Develoment Likely Next 2 Days

Tropical Storm Develoment Likely Next 2 Days

We continue to monitor two areas of disturbed weather in the Tropical Atlantic Basin. The system that we have the most interest in is the one in the Northwest Caribbean. There is extensive disturbed weather from this which extends from the Floriday Straits Southward to Central America. Broad low pressure has developed just offshore and now we are waiting to see whether a tighter low level center develops in the next 24 hours.

tropical storm

All global and hurricane weather models at least develop this into a tropical storm and all of then take the system into the Central Gulf of Mexico over the next 2 to 3 days. Even the European model has shifted a bit to the north with this taking it further northward along the Texas coast as opposed to near the Mexican border.

storm free

The second area of disturbed weather is southeast of the Windward Islands and continues to move westward. The system remains far to the south of 10 degrees north and is still on course to come inland over Venezuela rather than into the Southeast Caribbean though models and climatology would suggest a west northwest turn at some point. Organization is still possible here over the next 2 days before conditions become less favorable for developement.

storm free

The satellite loop above shows the approaching wave with respect to the system in the Caribbean. It is very unusual to have a system in the tropical Atlantic like this so early in the season. This could be an indicator going forward of a very active hurricane season with far less shearing issues across the Tropical Atlantic.

storm free

 

 

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