SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 38.8W ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
The latest satellite views of Tropical Storm Danny look rather impressive as convection is wrapping slowly around the circulation. The tropical storm was named Tuesday evening and conditions are favorable for continued steady strengthening and reaching hurricane strength by sometime Thursday.
The satellite loop shows Danny in a low shear environment and as long as the upper air flow over the storm continues to migrate westward with the tropical storm it should continue to develop. Track will depend on ridge to the north of the storm in the
Atlantic.
The Euro and GFS are pretty similar in how they handle the upper flow in the Atlantic. Both models show the upper low in the southwest Atlantic and that is well to the north and should not have any impact. The ridge weakness northeast of the Leeward Islands will affect how much of a northward component the storm has later in the week. The European strengthens that ridge somewhat which favors more westward motion. It appears that the overall hostile environment that has existed over the tropical Atlantic for the last 6 weeks has relaxed considerably. The longer term European view would argue for a westerly component of motion for quite awhile.
Judging by the longer term European pattern, it would argue against a track up the east coast given what the upper air is going to look like down the road.
A strong upper low is forecast into the Great Lakes by 144 hours with the westerlies pretty far south into the Mid-Atlantic. This is not the look one would expect to see for an east coast threat.
