Tropical Storm Cristobal On The Coast Will Head Northward Toward Gulf Coast Late Weekend

Tropical Storm Cristobal On The Coast Will Head Northward Toward Gulf Coast Late Weekend

LOCATION…18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI…35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

Tropical Storm Cristobal remains trapped in the Southwest Gulf and the center of Cristobal is on land right now. Enough of the circulation is over the water so that top winds are 50 mph. Some slow weakening will continue as Cristobal hugs the coast and then begins a slow drift northward late Thursday or certainly by Friday.

SATELLITE

storm free

Cristobal is embedded inside a large gyre of tropical moisture that extends from Florida southwestward into the Southwest Gulf. Eventually we will see higher pressures aloft build to the west of the tropical storm and also to the east.

Tropical Storm Cristobal On The Coast Will Head Northward Toward Gulf Coast Late Weekend

This should create a weak southerly flow in the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical storm should respond by heading north and eventually clearing the Yucatan Peninsula. Once it reaches the South Central Gulf of Mexico strengthening should resume. All the global models agree with this idea with the only differences showing up in how far west along the Gulf Coast will Cristobal track.

Tropical Storm Cristobal On The Coast Will Head Northward Toward Gulf Coast Late Weekend

The official track from the National Hurricane Center is north to the Louisana coast late Sunday before landfall. Rainfall from Cristobal will be a big deal along the Gulf Coast with up to 10 inches of rain likely in some places. It would seem given the upper air that this system will strengthen slowly. This may keep this from getting to hurricane status (75 mph) but we have been surprised before by intensity so I wouldn’t rule out Cristobal perhaps reaching minimal hurricane status. it is an outside chance but I wouldn’t bet against it.

 

BE SURE TO DOWNLOAD THE FREE METEOROLOGIST JOE CIOFFI WEATHER APP &

ANGRY BEN’S FREE WEATHER APP “THE ANGRY WEATHERMAN!

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

Liked it? Take a second to support joestradamus on Patreon!