tropical depression

Tropical Depression May Form Soon

Tropical Depression May Form Soon

Tropical Depression May Form Soon

Latest satellite pictures from the Eastern Atlantic show that disturbed weather southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become better organized. A core circulation has yet to form however conditions area favorable for continued development. The wind shear pattern across the Eastern Atlantic is light and a depression could form in the next 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center ratest his a 70 percent chance.

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When we look at the upper air pattern across the Atlantic one thing we notice is that the mid Atlantic ridge shifts south of 35 degrees north and breaks down thanks to a deep trough in the Great Lakes and another deep trough off Eastern Canada. It would seem to suggest that any tropical system that develops will respond to that weakness.

Tropical Depression May Form Soon

GFS Upper Air Forecast for Saturday Morning

tropical depression

Now longer term that trough out along 60 west will lift out and the ridge will rebuild there. These are all things we need to watch and see how they play out over the next week or so. Latest models are all pretty consistent taking this northwestward at least through the next 5 days.

98L_tracks_latest tropical depression

Elsewhere in the tropics conditions are quiet across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Southwest Atantic with just a few weak disturbances in the flow.

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