Tropical Depression 4 Remnants Showing Signs of Life

Satellite pictures this afternoon show that the remnants of Tropical Depression 4 located several hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico, may be showing signs of making a comeback. The strong wind shear conditions being caused by the upper low to the northeast may be relaxing. Yesterday that upper low was pretty much due north of the remnant low and shearing the tops of developing thunderstorms. However looking at the water vapor imagery this afternoon that upper low as pulled away to the northeast. Conditions to the east seem conducive for development so there is a chance that if this system gets a little further west, it could become a tropical depression again or possibly a tropical storm.

The visible satellite loop shows there is some sort of weak circulation embedded inside an area of thunderstorms. We will just have to watch it overnight and on Tuesday to see if it holds together. None of the global weather models develop this system however it would not be the first time if global models miss the ball when it comes to tropical systems redeveloping.

The upper air would support a general westward or west northwest motion and most of the hurricane models go along with this idea. In terms of strength it seems that half the intensity models strengthen this system and half do not.

Bear in mind that these tracks would not be problematic if this system does not develop or develops minimally. The National Hurricane Center began running points and models on this earlier today. We will see at 8pm if they mention it on their next Tropical Weather Outlook update.

In the Tropical Atlantic a tropical wave off the African Coast is moving westward and it could organize late this week but there are a number of issues here including dry air from the Sahara. JOESTRADAMUS has more on this in his latest post.

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Tropical Depression 4 Remnants Showing Signs of Life