Tropical Depression 4 Moving West Holding Strength

Overnight satellite loops continue to show the tropical depression moving northwestward now and while it remains weak, it seems to be holding its own with a tight circulation. The wavter vapor loop shows the huge amount of dry air to the east which is actually Saharan dust. To the north northwest of the depression we have a strong upper low producing a hostile wind shear environment which the tropical depression will be in soon.

The loop and forecast track will take the depression in what ever form it is in north of the Leeward Islands. If this degenerates into an open wave, it will eventually wind up in the Bahamas. Upper level conditions could become more favorable when it reaches that area but there may not be much left when it gets there.

…DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.0N 48.8W
ABOUT 835 MI…1340 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.86 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 48.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, with weakening expected
to begin by late tonight. The depression is forecast to degenerate
into a remnant low or tropical wave by Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

Most of the hurricane models take some reflection of the tropical system to the northwest through the weekend and into early next week. The UK MET model continues to show improvement in the upper air environment over tropical depression 4 next week and other models seem to be hinting at the same though the system will have to survive the trip there first.

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Tropical Depression 4 Moving West Holding Strength