Tropical Depression 19 Tropical Storm Paulette Update Hurricane Watch Bermuda

Tropical Depression 19 Tropical Storm Paulette Update Hurricane Watch Bermuda

Tropical Depression 19 is very close to tropical storm strength as it moves across Southern Florida. It is about to emerge into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico where conditions are favorable for strengthening and it should become a tropical storm later today. Once in the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane.

8 AM LOCATION…25.6N 81.1W
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM SE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

SATELLITE

storm free

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

Radars are showing that the bulk of the rain with the depression is south and offshore in the Florida Straits. Judging from the wind and pressure reports the center is close to moving offshore as it moves west at 9 mph.

LOCAL RADAR MIAMI

storm free

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free

Nothing much has changed in the forecast logic from yesterday. The depression becomes a tropical storm and takes a west northwest to northwest course. This brings it to the Central Gulf coast sometime early Tuesday. While the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps this as a tropical storm, they acknowledge in their discuss that there is a good chance this will become a minimal hurricane or stronger before landfall.

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE SOON, HURRICANE WATCH BERMUDA

The satellite picture below shows Tropical Storm Paulette to the east of Tropical Depression 19 out in the Atlantc. Paulette has been dealing with some upper air wind shear which is forecast to relax later today. It should strengthen to a hurricane as it heads northwestward and Tropical Storm Warnings & a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda. They will likely go to a hurricane warning late today or by Sunday morning at the latest.

storm free

 8 AM LOCATION…27.2N 56.8W
ABOUT 590 MI…955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

The track of Paulette will take the hurricane very close to Bermuda and coming in from the southeast puts Bermuda on the eastern side of the storm making for a rather long duration event here. Weather conditions will deteriorate late Sunday into Monday when Paulette will make its closes pass to Bermuda. Afterwards it will take a sharp right turn to the northeast.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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