TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 COULD BE KEY TO DROUGHT BREAKING RAINS

Let’s get the details regarding Tropical Depression 11 up first. It is poorly defined and the satellite loops this morning show that much of the thunderstorm activity lies tot the east of the circulation center which isn’t easy to spot. There is of course shear which is preventing this from strengthening significantly but it has a shot at becoming a tropical storm before too long. But it it does it has maybe another day or so of let call it not unfavorable conditions.

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
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LOCATION...27.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

nhcprog

Now of course everyone is going to focus on the National Hurricane Center forecast track here with it moving northwest and then northward. For me the important thing is whether all this tropical moisture either from tropical depression 11 or the upper trough in the Gulf of Mexico or both could go a long way in producing drought breaking rains here if the cards are played just right.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

Watch the loop carefully and you can get a real sense here of what is going on atmospherically. You have the depression east of the Bahamas. You have the trough and upper low in east Texas that is drawing up moisture in the Eastern Gulf into the Gulf States and southeast, and to the northwest across the Western Great Lakes you can see the cold front. The question is how much of that tropical moisture in the Gulf states gets drawn up here and squeezed out later Tuesday night and Wednesday. The second question is how does the tropical depression react to the cold front once that front stalls out along the coast and strong high pressure builds to the north of it in New England.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

Back a number of weeks ago I wrote a piece about what you need to get a tropical system to move up the east coast. You can read that for background but this is what the upper air is supposed to look like by the end of the week.

gfs108

Again I am more interested here in how much moisture we can get out of this as the front and trough eventually absorb the tropical depression. Complicating all this even further is strong high pressure to the north that will create a very strong onshore flow later in the week. Needless to say much to watch and sort out in the coming days.

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