Tropical Cyclone Formation Not Likely

Tropical Cyclone Formation Not Likely

Tropical Cyclone Formation Not Likely

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Tropical Cyclone Formation Not Likely

As we take a look a the various satellite loops this morning we can see that there isn’t too much happening at the moment from the standpoint of the tropics. There isn’t much activity at all in the Gulf of Mexico other than some showers over Western Cuba and Florida.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Not Likely Gulf of Mexico Satellite Loop

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The wider Western Atlantic view however does show disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean as a weak are of low pressure migrates to the west northwest. Much of the activity is over land and it will not be able to develop until it emerges into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Not Likely Western Atlantic Satellite Loop

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The Tropical Atlantic is quiet and almost cloud free which is not unusual for this time of year. Waves coming across are weak and this area usually doesn’t get going until late July or August in most years.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Not Likely Tropical Atlantic Satellite Loop

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With regards to development of the low in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, models overnight were not very bullish on this. While pressures are low the proximity to land lessens the chance for development.

gfs108 Tropical Cyclone Formation Not Likely

With regards to low pressure in the Atlantic, some have suggested that this could become a tropical storm. Given the time of year and the upper air structure, this low is a frontal wave and non tropical in nature in my view. This is strictly a cold core system and it would have to sit out there for days in order to become anything tropical. That is very unlikely.

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