Tropical Cyclone Development SW Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone Development SW Gulf

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Tropical Cyclone Development SW Gulf of Mexico

Latest satellite pictures are showing a well defined circulation moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and headed into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. The satellite loop below shows it very well as the circulation emerges on the west side of the Yucatan. Convection also appears to be increasing during this evening and if trends continue, a tropical depression could form on Sunday. The NatIonal Hurricane Center rates this a 60 percent chance of doing so.

Tropical Cyclone Development SW Gulf Satellite Loop

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Conditions are marginally favorable for development. However there doesn’t seem to be a mechanism to take this system northward. Instead it is more likely to move westward or west northwestward along or just north of the coastline in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Cyclone Development SW Gulf Wind Shear Sunday Afternoon

gfs72 Tropical Cyclone Development SW Gulf

The wind shear map above shows the low center over an area of light wind shear but this is not exceptionally favorable. We will monitor this of course during the day Sunday. The light blue and white area indicates winds at the highest levels of the atmosphere under 15 knots. The lighter the winds are aloft, the more favorable conditions are for development. Or at least they are less favorable for weakening if a system forms.

Elsewhere in the tropics there isn’t much going on. The rest of the Caribbean is free of clouds and the system in the Southwest Atlantic is non tropical in nature.  The Tropical Atlantic also remains very quiet at the moment which is typical of late June.

Tropical Cyclone Development SW Gulf

Satellite Loop Western Atlantic

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Tropical Cyclone Development SW Gulf

Satellite Loop Tropical Atlantic

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