Tropical Cyclone Development Probability Rises

Tropical Cyclone Development Probability Rises

60% Chance Next 5 Days

The National Hurricane Center has increasedf the chances for tropical cyclone development in the Southwest Atlantic over the next 5 days to 60 percent in the 3 to 5 day period which takes us over the weekend. Latest satellite loops show convection north of Puerto Rico out into the Atlantic increasing during the day and continuing to increase this evening.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT

SATELLITE LOOP

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Tropical Cyclone Development Probability Rises

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 5 DAY OUTLOOK

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE

Water temperatures are not only borderline but they are actually now cooler than normal in the Southwest Atlantic for the first time in ages. However what might counteract that is a somewhat favorable environment for development. The map below is the wind profile of the higher levels atmosphere above 25-30 thousand feet. Winds are forecast to be very light at that level and that is a key factor in tropical storm formation.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT

HIGH LEVEL WIND SHEAR FORECAST

gfs120 Tropical Cyclone Development

 

We will monitor this of course and given the time of year, conditions have to really line up for tropical storm formation. It seems some of the pieces of the puzzle are there. Now it is a matter of how they come together.

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