Satellite pictures this afternoon show that the area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas is becoming better organized and the National Hurricane Center now indicates a 70 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming as it moves northwestward. There seems to be very little motion shown on the loop through this afternoon and evening. Conditions are somewhat favorable for another day or 2 before strong winds aloft make conditions hostile. This is something that needs to be watched with the action along the east coast. What I will be interested in is to see if any of the moisture from this could some how get involved with the slowing front and the wave developing on it for later Tuesday into Wednesday…or does it remain a separate entitiy.

More importantly for is all the action off the east coast right now with showers and thunderstorms off the Carolinas and what appears to be a low that is trying to form east of the Bahamas. Conditions there are somewhat favorable for development over the 2 days.

Also we have disturbed weather from the Caribbean into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico and low pressure will develop here. Right now conditions are not that favorable but there is a possibility that if the low is a little further east it could be in a small area where conditions are a little more favorable. In any event it is feeding tropical moisture into the eastern Gulf and the southeastern states which adds some fuel to the moisture field.



It wil be interesting to see how this all plays out as the week goes on.

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