tropical cyclone

Tropical Cyclone Development Possible Caribbean Next 5 Days

Tropical Development Possible Caribbean Next 5 Days

Tropical Development Possible Caribbean Next 5 Days

Latest weather models are continuing to point at 2 systems in the tropics. The first is disturbed weather in the Bahamas and over Florida. Disorganized showers & thunderstorms are being caused by a strong trough and upper air winds are not favorable for development here even though some kind of weak non tropical low may try and form over the next day or two and move westward.

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The second area is in the Southwest Caribbean and there is a developing concentration of showers and thunderstorms and has been increasing today. This is part of a large gyre of low pressure that is over that region. Recent weather models are indicating that a separate system will emerge from this gyre and move northwestward into the Northwest Caribbean over the next 2 to 3 days. Conditions there will become more favorable for development as the water vapor loop shows a large upper air low is pulling away to the west relaxing upper air winds in that region.

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All weather models are growing more bullish with the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing by Friday. Today’s GFS, Canadian, and last night’s European model all show this in one form or another and then moving it northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

tropical cyclone

The jet stream pattern across the United States show the westerlies dropping far enough south to bring this up into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico rather than the Western Gulf of Mexico. It would appear that anything that forms will try and follow the western edge of the upper high that is between the Bahamas & Bermuda,

tropical cyclone

Longer range models would suggest that this system could eventually work its way northeastward and up the east side of the Appalachians which could make it a big rain producer for the Middle Atlantic states and the Northeast early next week. We will be very curious as to how the European model handles this this afternoon. For now we watch.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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