tropical cyclone

Tropical Cyclone Development Caribbean Next 2 Days

Tropical Cyclone Development Caribbean Next 2 Days

 

Tropical Cyclone Development Caribbean Next 2 Days

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Looking at the latest satellite loop of the tropical disturbance in the Southwest Caribbean it appears to be getting better organized. There is some curvature developing and there may be the beginnings of a broad low level circulation. The National Hurricane Center has indicated that if necessary and Air Force plane will investigate the area later Wednesday afternoon. Conditions remain favorable for some development though the proximity to land may be a bit of an issue until it moves into the Northwest Caribbean where warm water temperatures and more room over open waters could allow for further development on Thursday or Friday.

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To the north of this system is another area of disturbed weather associated with an upper trough. Low pressure may try to form here though upper level winds north of Cuba to Florida remain rather hostile for development.  Eventually it will be the system in the Caribbean that will become the main focus as it makes its way eventually into the Gulf of Mexico.

tropical cyclone

Early runs of hurricane tracking models all seem to make a move to the Northeast corner of the Yucatan Peninsula and the northward toward the Central Gulf Coast. The HWRF model is especially aggressive with the intensity but it is on the high end of the model range as others seem to be weaker. It seems reasonable that a tropical depression or tropical storm will develop from all this in the next few days. Weather models such as the European & the NAM model are much further to the east with the track and tend to bring it closer to the Eastern Gulf Coast rather than the Central Gulf Coast. We will evaluate the overnight weather models and have more on this during the day on Wednesday.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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