Tropical Atlantic Showing Signs of Life

Tropical Atlantic Showing Signs of Life

Tropical Atlantic Showing Signs of Life

Tropical Atlantic Showing Signs of Life

We are half way through the month of August and so far we have seen one system in Hurricane Earl. Earl moved into Belize as a hurricane and then into Southern parts of Mexico as a tropical storm. That was back at the beginning of the month. Since then it has been quite but there is some action that is developing in the Eastern Atlantic that warrants a little attention.

The Gulf of Mexico did feature a non tropical low that brought 2 feet of rain over parts of Southern Louisiana but that has now moved westward into Texas. Right now we have scattered convection there and in the Northwest Caribbean but no tropical development is expected here.

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In the Tropical Atlantic there is a wave that just moved off the African coast and it is moving westward. Upper air conditions appear conducive for some development given light wind shear aloft. There is a little turning showing up and there appears to be a weak circulation there. The National Hurricane Center rates this now a 50 percent chance of development. There are stronger winds aloft in the Central Atlantic thanks to an upper low in the high layers of the atmosphere. Once the wave gets there conditions will be less favorable. Either way it appears that this system is likely to track more northwest than west over time  as indicated by the Spaghetti Models.

Tropical Atlantic Showing Signs of Life Spaghetti Models

98L_tracks_latest Tropical Atlantic Showing Signs of Life

Longer term models are growing more bullish for tropical storm development as we approach the end of the month. The subdued activity that we have see is not that unusual and sometimes you can have a period like this and then suddenly you will get several storms in a short period of time.

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