Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

[brid video=”55361″ player=”6390″ title=”Severe Weather Threat Friday 07222016″]

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

We have been seeing the rather normal quiet period that occurs from late June through Mid July. The tropics have been behaving the way they normally do since the early burst of tropical storms in the beginning of June. Signs are now appearing that activity is about to rev up a bit as we head toward the end of the month and the beginning of August.

Right now on the Gulf of Mexico satellite loop we can see clouds moving from east to west as the upper ridge to the north steers the flow across the Gulf. There is nothing here in the short term to worry about in terms of development.

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 Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

Western Atalntic Satellite Loops

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Both views of the Atlantic show typical activity. Disturbances here are hard to define and there is nothing here either that will develop in the short term.

However during next week things start to change. The upper air flow across the Atlantic will start to rev up a bit as waves of strength begin to move off the African coast. The GFS model has been strongly hinting at this. for the last several model runs. What interests me is the upper air profile at the highest levels of the atmosphere.

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

GFS Upper Air Wind Shear Wednesday July 27

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Unlike last year the wind shear profile in the Atlantic is different. We see large areas of light winds aloft shown in the blue and white. The areas of strong wind shear in red are small and relatively confined. The Gulf of Mexico shows the biggest change in the upper profile from a year ago. This is important because strong winds at the highest levels of the atmosphere are hostile to tropical storm development. This remains an important difference from last year and models have been consistently showing this for weeks. 

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

GFS Model Wednesday July 27th

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

In about 5 or 6 days the GFS shows a strong wave moving off the African coast. Given the more favorable upper air conditions, this could be the first system to watch as we head into August. There is no guarantee that this system will develop but it at least could provide a hint at what to expect going forward into the two most active months of hurricane season.

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