Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

[brid video=”55361″ player=”6390″ title=”Severe Weather Threat Friday 07222016″]

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

We have been seeing the rather normal quiet period that occurs from late June through Mid July. The tropics have been behaving the way they normally do since the early burst of tropical storms in the beginning of June. Signs are now appearing that activity is about to rev up a bit as we head toward the end of the month and the beginning of August.

Right now on the Gulf of Mexico satellite loop we can see clouds moving from east to west as the upper ridge to the north steers the flow across the Gulf. There is nothing here in the short term to worry about in terms of development.

storm free

 Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

Western Atalntic Satellite Loops

storm free

storm free

Both views of the Atlantic show typical activity. Disturbances here are hard to define and there is nothing here either that will develop in the short term.

However during next week things start to change. The upper air flow across the Atlantic will start to rev up a bit as waves of strength begin to move off the African coast. The GFS model has been strongly hinting at this. for the last several model runs. What interests me is the upper air profile at the highest levels of the atmosphere.

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

GFS Upper Air Wind Shear Wednesday July 27

gfs174

Unlike last year the wind shear profile in the Atlantic is different. We see large areas of light winds aloft shown in the blue and white. The areas of strong wind shear in red are small and relatively confined. The Gulf of Mexico shows the biggest change in the upper profile from a year ago. This is important because strong winds at the highest levels of the atmosphere are hostile to tropical storm development. This remains an important difference from last year and models have been consistently showing this for weeks. 

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

GFS Model Wednesday July 27th

Tropical Activity Forecast To Increase Soon

In about 5 or 6 days the GFS shows a strong wave moving off the African coast. Given the more favorable upper air conditions, this could be the first system to watch as we head into August. There is no guarantee that this system will develop but it at least could provide a hint at what to expect going forward into the two most active months of hurricane season.

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

JOIN JOESTRADAMUS ON YOUTUBE!

LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE

LONG ISLAND WEATHER

NEW YORK WEATHER

 

Weather App

storm free

Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.

It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.

Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.

Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!

 

googleplay
 

 


storm free

 

 

 


Liked it? Take a second to support joestradamus on Patreon!