Thunderstorms Popping Up Some Strong Cells Likely Severe Weather Risk Wednesday
No doubt about it as far as the heat and humidity is concerned; it is oppressive outside. Heat indices are running around 95 to 100 on the heat indices. Air temperatures are in the low 90s and will top out between 90 and 95. Topping it off we have an approaching slow moving upper trough creating instability in the atmosphere. Clouds are building up and scattered thunderstorms have been developing. Look for the threat for scattered thunderstorms into this evening and some isolated cells could be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has the highest risk for this evening across the Hudson Valley southwestward into the Western Counties of New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania.
Two lines of thunderstorms are trying to form in Western and Central Pennsylvania and we will have to watch the lines closely as they move eastward. They should reach their peak intensities late this afternoon and evening as they approach Eastern Pennsylvania and possibly into the Western New Jersey and Hudson Valley counties west of the Hudson. To the east we are seeing some isolated strong pop up thunderstorms and those will also continue into this evening before dying out after sunset.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The Storm Prediction Center has posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through this evening for Northeast Pennsylvania into the Hudson Valley from Dutchess & Ulster Counties north and west as well as Northwest Connecticut.. They have also elevated the risk area here to slight from marginal
There is no change in the outlook for Wednesday at the moment. The risk area remains marginal for now but depending on the extent of daytime heating Wednesday which is the big question, we could see the risk area elevated on later forecasts.
We see the likelihood of strong thunderstorms late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a cold front nears the coast. The front looks to stall out offshore which will lead to complications late this week and possibly at least into Saturday. We will evaluate the weekend outlook later today.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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