Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain, Flooding All Possible Wednesday

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Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain, Flooding; all three are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night as the Storm Prediction Center has placed a large area from the Carolinas northward to New York, Pennsylvania, Southern New England and Long Island in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. The main threat will be during Wednesday night as a strong cold front sweeps to the coast. One of the things that caught my eye today as I mentioned in an earlier post was that the temperatures tomorrow night will be rising through the 60s and in some places into the 70s across Eastern Long Island and Southern New England. This stands out like a sore thumb given all the development that occurring.

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gfs36

The winds at the 850 mb level or roughly 5000 feet show a strong secondary jet stream at that level of 50 to 60 knots coming in along Coastal New Jersey and Long Island Thursday morning at 2am. This suggests to me that there could be a line of possible severe thunderstorms that may develop ahead of that approaching cold front. Warm tropical air will be at the surface with the dew points very high. Severe weather doesn’t happen often this time of year but the set up is there. It could certainly enhance the rainfall amounts in some places above the 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain that I am currently forecasting. This is something we will need to watch closely as the weather system sweeps to the coast. Once the front passes the showers should be ending from west to east. For Eastern Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey the threat could come a few hours early, perhaps between the hours of 8pm and midnight.

Weather conditions will improve on Thursday though it will still be rather warm with highs probably reaching the 70s before cooler air moves for Friday and the start of the weekend.

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