Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather Western New Jersey, Eastern PA,
Risks Extend to Western New England, Tornado Risk Elevated
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Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather Western New Jersey, Eastern PA,
Risks Extend to Western New England, Tornado Risk Elevated
This is going to be a busy severe weather day in the Eastern US. We have an “enhanced” risk for severe weather covering a large area of geography from Georgia to Southern New York. This includes all of Eastern Pennsylvania including Southeast and South Central Pa, all of the western counties of New Jersey reaching as far north as the Southern Catskills in NY. Maryland, Delaware and Virginia lie in the the slight risk zone as does much of North and South Carolina, Northern Georgia, and parts of Tennesssee and Kentucky. Slight risk covers coastal areas from Virginia to New York City and then continues north up the Hudson River in NY State.
What stands out to me is the extent of elevated tornado risk and that covers areas from the Southern Appalachians all the way up into Northern New York or over a 1000 mile stretch from south to north. This is an usually large area of tornado risk and it includes many of the major cities along the I-95 corridor. The 5 percent risk area includes Baltimore, Washington DC and Philadelphia among other major cities with 2 percent risk just touching New York City.
SATELLITE
WEATHER RADAR
For Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England we have a warm front moving eastward and that will take the overnight heavy downpours to the east. The warm front will only get so far to the east and then we see how much daytime heating we will get to destabllize the atmosphere. It is a solid bet that the areas in the enhanced zone will likely see strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and then those storms move eastward. Humidity levels will be very high today as winds from the south south east saturate the atmosphere and take dew points into the low and middle 70s.
We are using the HRRR model loop today as a solid proxy for what will happen today and we can see the model fires up a very active long line of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as it swings to the east. This loop begins at 10am Monday and runs through 8am Tuesday. We also have the GFS model loop which supports the HRRR idea with an extensive line of thunderstorms.
It will be all about the radars and how the storms develop later today so we will of course be keeping an eye on them. Thunderstorms will move east tonight and they will likely weaken somewhat as the move into New England and Long Island. Tuesday sees another day of potential severe weather in Southern and Southeastern New England though for now we are looking at a marginal risk for severe weather or isolated severe thunderstorms.
Also we should note that flash flooding could be a risk today as these thunderstorms will likely take advantage of the very moist atmosphere and favorable dynamics to produce heavy rains. Up to a few inches could fall in some places and given the convective nature of this system, it is always possible that some local areas could wind up with double the forecast rain amounts and create flash flooding issues so bear that in mind if you are travelling later today into this evening during the peak time for thunderstorms.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
