super bowl sunday snow

Super Bowl Sunday Snow Rain Active Pattern Next Week

Super Bowl Sunday Snow Rain Active Pattern Next Week

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Super Bowl Sunday Snow Rain Active Pattern Next Week

We seem to be flipping a switch to a more active pattern over the next few weeks. All of this is coinciding with a colder pattern overall but as always with these things they are not perfectly aligned for snow lovers and location may be key. There is a lot of model uncertainty moving ahead as well regarding the strength of cold air which will ebb and flow as each weather system moves along. Once we get past the cold front for Thursday night which does not look like much, we focus our attention on Sunday. Remember that weather models incorrectly were overly warm and aggressive with the system for late Thursday into Friday morning. This will produce a few rain showers that might change to a bit of snow on the back side once the front passes but nothing of consequence is forecast from this except. We will address Thursday night & Friday morning separately on a later post. Much colder air follows for Friday and Saturday which will be mainly dry with below average temperatures especially Saturday morning which will be in the single digits and teens for lows and highs Saturday just in the upper 20s and lower 30s. This sets the table for Sunday.

GFS SUPER BOWL SUNDAY SNOW RAIN CLICK TO ANIMATE

super bowl sunday snow

We will start with the GFS model which shows low pressure moving across the Gulf States and heading right up the coast just offshore. Of the three major weather models the GFS is the warmest. Snow will begin during Sunday midday and then gradually change to rain along coastal areas. However inland it will be a bit of a different story as the snow will last longer before a change to a mix and then rain. Where this is all snow a 3-6″/4-8″ event seems reasonable. The GFS model has a well developed low with this which explains the flooding of warm air further north. The flatter Canadian model leads to a colder flatter idea with the low and as a result the mixing/all snow line on this model is further south.

CANADIAN MODEL SNOW RAIN CLICK TO ANIMATE

super bowl sunday snow

The European model basically splits the difference between the two models. Why the difference? Well it seems that the GFS is more overdeveloped than the other two models. The upper air on the GFS doesn’t to me support its surface view though there should be a fair amount over overrunning moisture with this. All the models seem to agree on this point. We will have to see whether cold air is going to be more important as we get closer to the weekend. Beyond Sunday into Monday, another system follows for Wednesday which looks a bit weaker and another one follows that one next weekend with cold shots in between. All of this is due the strengthening vortex in Canada which in the long range is forecast to control the flow through the next several weeks.

SUPER BOWL SUNDAY SNOW RAIN JET STREAM FORECAST

super bowl sunday snow

Weather models over time will begin shifting the ridge off the West Coast further east. This will support a continuing active pattern going forward. Weather systems dropping southeast into the Eastern US will mean more opportunities for snow. All of this will hinge on the short term issues regarding the amount of cold air that will be available and more importantly where all the cold air centers itself as these weather systems move along. It is an interesting dynamic going forward as the second half of winter begins.

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