The summer pattern just keeps hanging strong and while there are 2 fronts on the horizon for the next 2 weeks neither one appears to be any kind of game changer and yes there could be thunderstorms with each one but no there will not be a widespread beneficial soaking rain. With some areas seeing less than 50 percent of normal rainfall this summer you have to wonder whether fire weather will become an issue at some point especially on Long Island Suffolk County where the dryness has been extreme in some areas.
The front has nothing with it really. High pressure with cooler less humid air is in Eastern Canada and that will be pushing and building southward. Were it to stay up there or lock it self up in New England then the onshore flow cloud possibly do something on the rain end. Unfortunately from that respect it is not going to happen. The onshore flow will set up for a day or so but not longer than that.
BACKDOOR PUSHES SOUTH..LOWS OFF SE US COASTLINE
The onshore flow sets up stronger from the Middle Atlantic coast southward. This creates lower pressures off the Southeast Coast out to Bermuda. I mentioned this yesterday on a facebook post when models were wrapping up a gale center out of this northeast of Bermuda. Recent runs have gotten away from this and given that there has been a tendency for tropical storms to form close to home we should probably keep an eye on this going into the weekend. Longshot for development but not impossible.
Back home we can see what happens to the high as it builds and shifts southward which means given the upper air pattern that 2 days of relief will be followed by another round of very warm to hot weather starting Sunday and lasting into the middle of next week.
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH
The next front won’t get here until probably next Thursday given what we see in the upper air pattern and behind that is a shot of cooler less humid air. Models have been backing off on the magnitude of how cool but at least it will cut the heat off much like this one is going to do for Friday and Saturday.
Nothing but a wholesale pattern change is going to break the dry pattern we are in. There is nothing in this set up other than scattered thunderstorms when the front moves through. Even here we have to start to wonder how much we can get out of it given that as you move through September, thunderstorms have a tougher and tougher time developing simply from daytime heating. They need a trigger mechanism of some sort and the support is just not there other than for isolated downpours. Summer weather continues for the time being. With regards to model variability, this continues as we see the upper air reacting to one thing or another which changes the magnitude of the cool air masses longer term (beyond next week). We will watch and see how this game plays out.