Summer Sunday of Sun However Severe Thunderstorm & Tornado Risks Loom Monday Up & Down the East Coast

Summer Sunday of Sun However

Severe Thunderstorm & Tornado Risks Loom Monday Up & Down the East Coast

Summer Sunday of Sun However

Severe Weather & Tornado Risks Loom Monday Up & Down the East Coast

Monday is setting up to be a very busy day of severe weather potential up and down the Eastern Seaboard. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a rather large area of severe weather risk extending from Western New England and Upstate NY southward to the Southeast US with elevated risk inland from the Southern Appalachians northward into Southern Pennsylvania. The areas in yellow and orange (slight and enhanced risk) is where we could see the highest chances for severe thunderstorms and they include much of Western New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Eastern Marylanda and Delaware as well as the Catskills and Southern NY state.

We also have elevated tornado risk indicated for much of the area inside the slight risk zone and also an elevated area of 5 percent tonado risk which exteds from Southeast Ohio eastward across much of Southern Pennsylvania Maryland and Virgina.  I suspect that we could see the risk areas expanded a bit more come Monday as the day comes into focus and we can evaluate the situation in real time.

SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES

WEATHER RADAR

Meanwhile we have today, Sunday, which the satellite loop shows lots of clear skies across the Eastern US. Later this afternoon we will probably see some clouds come in from the west, well ahead of Monday’s cold front and upper trough but overall today it should be a good summer day. Highs will be in the 80s. Humidity levels will be coming up a bit from south to north as the day wears on.

By evening, showers and some thunderstorms will be developing to the west in Central Pennsylvania ahead of a warm front that will be moving eastward. This is likely to bring showers and some thunderstorms overnight as we transition over to a tropical air mass. Often times these warm fronts can tend to reduce severe weather chances with the approaching cold front as the showers tend to impact daytime heating. However these showers and storms coming overnight should be gone by daybreak and the daytime heating Monday will hinge on how low it takes for sunshine to break out during the first part of the day.

The warm front will be on the coast Monday morning so east of NYC showers and thunderstorms will be exiting around 8am or so. The areas to the east of NYC have a lower risk of severe weather due to the question of daytime heating. Once the warm front goes by we will see very humid conditions with breaks of sunshine developing and highs will each the 80s in many areas.

Dew points will be rising into the ridiculous low to mid 70s making it not only very uncomfortable, but all that tropical moisture coming into play in an unstable atmosphere means that the thunderstorms will also be rather big rain producers so we need to consider the possibility of flash flooding as the storms approach and move through during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Bear in mind that rainfall amounts locally could be double the forecast amounts due to the convective nature of this system. Once the front passes we have the leftover upper trough to deal with Tuesday which leaves us in a place where we could see some sunshine but there will likely be some scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening and some isolated severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out especially near the coast. Dew points will ease somewhat Tuesday but they still may be high, just lower than Monday which in and of itself is an improvment. Highs will be in the 80s. Wednesday into Thursday will be warm days but we should see some humidity relief as dry air comes in from Eastern Canada.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.