BLOCKY PATTERN APPEARS
Weather models remain on course with idea of some high latitude blocking developing over the next couple of weeks. What does that mean? Well think back to last march. Higher pressures build over the polar regions. This displaces the jet stream well to the south of normal. This has two implications. One is that the chilly pattern we have gotten into lately will continue until further notice. Cold fronts will continue to come through every couple of days with shots of chilly air. Early frosts and freezes will continue on some nights.
Two of the indices above are pointing to the blocky nature of the pattern. The North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO is going negative. Weather models are showing rising pressures across the North Atlantic. The Pacific North America pattern which measures the strength of pressure changes in both the Northwest US as well as the Southeast US and the East Central Pacific is strongly positive which means this favors a ridge in the west in the upper atmosphere. This could be important regarding any storm threats going forward.
The European model showing the jet stream pattern a week from the day shows the building North Atlantic high and the jet stream displaced well south. Now it is a question of how the puzzle pieces come together. The trough that extends from the Great Lakes to Texas likely generates a low moving across the Gulf States next Friday and then moving up the coast next Saturday if the European has the correct handle on this.
All of this action leads to a deep trough in the Eastern US next weekend as a strong ridge builds in the Western US. The European model on this run seems to time everything out at this point almost perfectly for a strengthening storm moving up the coast just inland. This would mean a windswept rain here next Saturday if correct. This is what it looks like at the surface.
Now before we get all wrapped up in the European solution, let us remember that the GFS handles the upper air differently with regards to the sharp trough that develops in the East. This is because the GFS keeps the strong high in the North Atlantic and has a much stronger blocky pattern than the European model.
The result here would be 2 storm systems that pass to our south and not as strong as the European model. Blocky patterns are highly unstable and weather models usually have a difficult time figuring them out. For now regardless of what happens next weekend, the weather until then will be relatively calm with some showers late tonight and again late Saturday, and then shots of cold air next week with no precipitation to speak of probably through Friday of next week.
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Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical or storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property