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This afternoon’s weather model runs seem to be trying to come in line for the weekend. It will be cold and that is certain. The big question is all the energy in the upper atmosphere and how it translates to a storm that will try and form along the coast. What makes this even more problematic is the time of year. April snows become more and more rare as each day passes and we have noted several times that the setup has to be perfect in all respects especially the time of day.
Time of day will be working against this event the entire way as the bulk of anything that falls will be in the daytime. The amount of cold air is borderline so intensity of precipitation and dynamics are going to play a huge role. Elevation is going to be key as well. Plus we are still not certain of how all the upper air dynamics are going to play out.
Storm Threat Uncertainty Continues
NAM MODEL SURFACE MAPS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING
Since all the precipitation is going to be developing overhead, it is going to be subject to variability. In other words some places will get more and some will get less. Also take a look at the NAM 78 hour. You can see the dark blue heavy snow area is embedded inside an area of rain along the coast and lighter snows to the west. Typical in the spring months you tend to see banding like this. Trying to figure out who gets inot the heavier band 3 days out is an exercise in futility.
Storm Threat Uncertainty Continues
NAM UPPER AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
While the upper low moves into a very bullish position for snow there are other issues upstream. To the north there are 2 other weather systems in play. There impact on the low to the south will be important. Rather than phase, the upper systems in Canada will likely prevent the southern feature from lifting northeast. Instead it translates further east. So how far north does precipitation get? Will all the precipitation be concentrated around the upper low itself? The surface low doesn’t intensify all that much. Lots of questions an uncertainty here.
The GFS model has a similar idea on this run but it is colder and supports more of snow look for the area. We are now going to wait on the Euro model to render its verdict. For now I will be putting in rain and snow in the forecast for Saturday. In any case Sunday looks dry and very cold. All models warm things up for the first part of next week and it looks like the super cold we have seen is done.
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