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Storm Threat Later Next Week?

Storm Threat Later Next Week?

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Storm Threat Later Next Week?

Weather chatter has been increasing surrounding the possibility of another major storm to impact the Middle Atlantic and Northeast for the middle of next week. Usually I don’t like to look ahead to a storm if there are impending events before it and such is the case with Sunday. That system actually does hold one of the keys to whether the midweek storm becomes a reality or not.

EUROPEAN MODEL ON STORM THREAT NEXT WEDNESDAY THURSDAY

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Sunday’s low becomes a major storm on all the models. All the models take this system out to 50N or 50W or as it is called in the weather world a 50-50 low. That low is key because in the blocking pattern that is setting up it forces any energy to the west to dig down and around it since it is blocked from moving to the east. This is how we have seen some of those classic big storms of the past. The models diverge from here on this key point.

GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST FOR MONDAY-THURSDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

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EUROPEAN MODEL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

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Click on the images to animate and you will see what the GFS does verses the European. On the GFS rather than dig around the the 50-50 low the diving energy winds up getting absorbed and stretched while in the European that energy digs right down..picks up the southern stream system and BOOM you have a big storm along the east coast!

EUROPEAN MODEL FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING

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Needless to say that the European resolves this with a major east coast storm. The GFS doesn’t anything of consequence because it destroys the diving energy in the north.

GFS MODEL FORECAST  FOR THURSDAY MORNING

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We have nothing of consequence on the GFS except that weak wave off the southeast US coast which goes out. So the question about all of this will hinge on that Sunday storm and the 50-50 low. The European has been growing more bullish over the last 3 days. The GFS remains firm on its solution. The next model run could be key on which model has the better idea on the middle of next week.

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