Springlike Pattern Long Range
Its a Springlike Pattern Long Range that is setting up. The entire jet stream pattern appears to be in some sort of upheaval. Where it winds up is hard to say but the pattern as it evolves does have a few obvious features. First off the cold air flow from Canada is basically shut off.
Springlike Pattern Long Range UPPER AIR PATTERN WEDNESDAY
The upper air jet stream flow over Canada is west to east which means we are talking Pacific air. The two standout features are a strong ridge in the eastern states and a deep upper air low that moves into Northern Mexico. The ridge in the east will bring rising temperatures through Wednesday peaking in the 70s! The upper low in Northern Mexico eventually opens up and lifts northeastward into East Texas bringing rains and severe weather there.
Springlike Pattern Long Range SURFACE MAP THURSDAY
For our area a back door cold front arrives on the scene on Thursday with some showers. The GFS typically is in a bit of a rush with bringing the front through while the European is about 6 hours slower. This is going to perhaps prolong the mild temperatures into Thursday before it cools off. Some showers are probable with all this.
Springlike Pattern Long Range UPPER AIR NEXT WEEKEND
Once that Texas system lifts up well to the west of us next weekend models diverge greatly going forward. The GFS keeps the troughs active in the west. The European model on the other hand brings a somewhat colder look.
Springlike Pattern Long Range UPPER AIR PATTERN EURO VS GFS MARCH 15th
Actually the two models go in drastically opposite directions here. The European has had the better longer term performance. It isn’t too often that you see differences this radical. It seems that the European wants to hold back part of the vortex west of Greenland and drop it down into Northeastern Canada while the GFS takes that entire system out to the east and forces a ridge to build north. Such is the puzzle going forward. We can say that with both models that no major storms are on the horizon for us. But the big warmup this week is. And there is nothing here that really suggests any winter weather for the next 10 days.
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