Spring Pattern Going Forward
Looking out to the long range we seemed to be locked in a warmer than normal pattern ahead of the vernal equinox in 2 weeks or so. There is absolutely nothing in the long range models that indicates any kind of cold air intrusions other than minor ones via the back door.
Spring Pattern Going Forward UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT SUNDAY
Today’s Euro model shows a week from today a continuation of a ridge in the east. The flow across Canada is basically westerly which means cold air from the north is cut off. The only thing showing up later next weekend is another back door type cold front pushing down from New England.
Spring Pattern Going Forward Euro Model Surface Next Weekend
Other than that it seems that major storms are not in the cards through the next 10 days and just minor systems will be impacting us. Even out to day 10 the pattern remains very much the same and very much springlike with no polar flow at all.
Spring Pattern Going Forward Euro Model Upper Air Day 10
Now beyond day 10 the unreliable GFS is splitting the polar vortex at the highest levels of the atmosphere and drops one of the split upper lows at the highest levels of the atmosphere toward the northeast. This “split” concept was something that the GFS often predicts and never occurs.
GFS UPPER AIR STRATOSPHERE PATTERN DAY 12
Since what happens way upstairs takes about 10 days to 2 weeks to play through, this would suggest a colder pattern toward the end of March and the beginning of April. However the GFS has done this so many times over the last couple of months. The previous splits never happened. And just because we go to a colder than normal pattern, doesn’t necessarily mean anything regarding specifics or an early spring snowfall. It does suggests more pattern churning is ahead beyond mid March assuming that it is even correct. For the time being enjoy the warmth. At least it gives you an early start on yard cleanups and some spring gardening, or maybe even a little fishing.
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