Spring Blocking Ahead Means Not Much Warming Short Term
Yesterday’s storm system behaved the way most early spring storms behave. Heavy rain of an inch or more was commonplace at the coast. Snow inland was wet and elevation driven with many areas in Upstate NY and New England getting several to 6 inches with elevation driving some areas of 6 to 10 inches. We are behind it now and weather conditions have improved today with sunshine and temperatures are responding quickly as highs will be back into the 50s. Even areas that got snow yesterday will see snow melt away rather quickly.
We continue in a rather fast pattern with one system after another. However we are seeing some changes in the upper air pattern across the Atlantic that will delay any warmer temperatures over the next week to 10 days (other than the odd day here and there).
For snow lovers who have been waiting all winter for the North Atlantic Oscillation to go negative, well congratulations it has finally happened and it happens in a rather big way. This blocky signature will slow weather systems down and it will probably delay any wholesale warm up. If there is going to be a late season snowfall these teleconnections would certainly be more favorable but as always there is no silver bullet and no guarantee.
Back to the short range, the next weather system will be moving through overnight into Wednesday with an area of rain that makes it to just north of NYC. Clouds roll in and thicken tonight with some areas getting a cold rain Wednesday into the afternoon before the low moves out to the east.
We will catch a break Thursday with clouds and some sun before the next weather system comes through with a few showers or a period of rain later Thursday night into Friday. You should notice the fact that the -NAO at work is forcing highs to go to our north. This puts us in onshore flow and northeast winds which are always problematic in the springtime. Weather models are pointing to a stronger system impacting our weather over the weekend with some rain on one and possibly both weekend days. We will sort all this out over the next few days as we watch our rather chilly and active early spring pattern take hold.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.