Spring Arrives Early
Once we get past this weekend things are happening in the atmosphere that will mean spring arrives early. Usually spring weather means onshore flow, lots of clouds, and grey rainy conditions. This time however we are in for a nice stretch of weather beginning on Monday and last I believe into Thursday. The upper air jet stream pattern is going to now switch back to the west as the center of action.
Spring Arrives Early Monday Upper Air
The pattern is not that different from what we saw in December with a ridge taking shape in the Eastern States. This time of year the ridge needs to be strong enough to prevent any backdoor cold fronts from coming through. It appears on all models that this is the case through at least Wednesday and the European would extend that into part of Thursday.
Spring Arrives Early Wednesday Upper Air
Another element of spring of course is severe weather. By midweek a strong upper air disturbance gets ejected from the Pacific into Texas. There is a strong upper air storm that moves into West Texas by late Wednesday. This opens the door for severe weather for the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of Texas.
Spring Arrives Early Wednesday Surface Map
You can see the edge of a cold front getting close to us Wednesday night from the northwest. The European is slower with this front and delays it until Thursday. These fronts can be hard to time in the long range but we think we are warm at least through Wednesday. Also warm ups this time of year tend to be underdone by temperature models. With the strong March sun and a mostly west or west southwest wind, temperatures wind up being higher than modeled.
Spring Arrives Early Temperature Forecast Wednesday
The GFS is showing mid to upper 60s for Wednesday. I think we might see this as early as Tuesday and that the numbers shown above could be too low by at least 5 degrees. Low to mid 70s on Wednesday seems to be a strong possibility.
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