Special European Weather Model Loop

Special European Weather Model Loop

The European weather model loop below illustrates very well what is happening in the atmosphere regarding warming beginning to move toward the Arctic region. The loop is over the next 10 days which takes us though December 30th. The map shows the surface isobars and the colors are the temperatures. Click on the image of screenshot to see the loop.

ECMWF Movable Temp Update European weather model


What is important is to watch the progress of the warm air at the top of the loop over Europe. This is the Scandinavian high that is forecast to build from south to north. The loop shows warmer air penetrating the Arctic regions from the east and gradually migrating westward. We obviously cannot see beyond day 10 whether the warm air continues to penetrate but based on what the models are showing beyond day 10 on the GFS and on the ensembles, the bet is that the Scandinavian block takes hold. This will be critical to any pattern breakdown or modification. Are we at a tipping point here in the atmosphere where the current pattern has run itself to exhaustion?

euro240 european weather modelTake a look at my latest JOESTRADAMUS post from tonight which addresses the long range perspective of the GFS, European weather model, and the respective ensembles. My weather video from earlier today addresses what the GFS and European did on the overnight runs for comparison.

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